By linking the wars in Iran and Ukraine, the U.S. has opened a theater of conflict around the Caspian Sea.
Cover: CGTN reported on July 25 that the U.S. had struck the Caspian Sea’s Iranian port city of Bandar-e Anzali, shown here in aerial view in 2021. (Wiki9876ad/Wikimedia Commons/CC BY-SA 4.0)
M.K. Bhadrakumar, Indian Punchline || On Friday, even as U.S. President Donald Trump was announcing the end of the latest round of the conflict with Iran, the Pentagon unobtrusively extended the war theatre to the Caspian Sea in a hugely consequential geopolitical thrust.
The incident hardly figured in the Western news cycle.
But CGTN (China Global Television Network), perhaps sensing that the U.S. could be stealthily spreading its war to the Caspian region, reported on July 25,
“U.S. missiles struck a Revolutionary Guards Navy headquarters in the Ziba Kenar area of the Caspian Sea province of Gilan, according to a security official in Gilan quoted by Iranian media. Provincial authorities said U.S. projectiles had also struck the port city of Bandar Anzali, according to the Iranian Labor News Agency.”
Gilan province, which has a Caspian coastline borders Azerbaijan in the west, with which Iran has had a troubled relationship in the recent years following the Transcaucasian region’s geopolitical gravitation towards the Western orbit. Unsurprisingly, Russia’s ties with Azerbaijan and Armenia also have suffered a severe erosion following the ascendance of U.S. (and NATO) influence in Transcaucasia.
Trump is the new sheriff in town in Baku and Yerevan with Turkey’s President Recep Erdogan playing the role of undersheriff. To add to the complexity, Azerbaijan is a close ally of Turkey, and Turkey’s ties with Moscow have been strained in recent years by the covert takeover in Syria by Al-Qaeda affiliates backed by Ankara.
On the other hand, Turkey has never been a reliable friend for Iran, either, historically. During Trump’s 12-Day War with Iran last year, Turkey opened its air space to U.S. aircraft to attack Iran from Azerbaijan, which also happens to be one of Israel’s key operational bases against Iran.
Taking advantage of the Ukraine conflict, Western intelligence and NATO have made big inroads into the Caucasus and Caspian regions bordering Russia’s Muslim republics and are challenging Iran’s security when it already faces an existential threat from the U.S.-Israeli alliance.
The Caspian Sea makes a strategically vital supply route between Russia and Iran. Bandar Anzali is for Tehran what Odessa Port is for Kyiv where it receives Western arms supplies. Indeed, Iran and Russia have a close military relationship.
Therefore, Ukraine’s attack on an Iranian commercial vessel in the Caspian Sea in Russia’s territorial waters on Saturday, the first such attack since the start of the Russia-Ukraine war, is anything but a stray incident. Kyiv claimed responsibility for striking an Iranian vessel, signalling that one of Eurasia’s most stable security zones is now vulnerable to the direct spillover of the Ukraine conflict.
The Kremlin took note and spokesman Dmitry Peskov remarked at his daily briefing on Tuesday that the “geography of the Kiev regime’s terrorist activities is expanding.” Citing the incident, he added cryptically that all this “again highlights the need for a successful and complete special military operation.”
The attack on the Iranian ship was carried out from a distance of approximately 1,200 kilometres. Moscow has repeatedly alleged that such precise targeting over very long distances is way beyond Ukraine’s military capability and is only possible with the West’s direct participation.
Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov touched on it again on July 24:
“A significant portion of the support provided to Vladimir Zelensky (from the West) comes from the United States. This is not only because the Americans sell weapons to the EU, which then transfers them to Ukraine, but also because the United States provides intelligence and reconnaissance, Starlink remains operational, and advanced technologies that require specialist expertise on the battlefield do not find their way there by accident. That is the way things are.”
The New York Times’ report on the Ukrainian attack appeared under the headline “Ukraine’s Strike on an Iranian Ship Could Bring Two Wars Closer.” The Wall Street Journal headline read: “Two Wars Converge in the Caspian Sea as Ukraine Hits Iranian Supply Line to Russia.” Al Jazeera gave a further twist saying “Ukraine’s Zelenskyy set to meet Trump as Iran and Ukraine wars converge.”
A BBC report acknowledged that the incident” marked the first direct link between the wars in Iran and Ukraine.” Later in the article, it added, however, “But some experts question the wisdom of Kyiv’s decision to pick a fight with Iran.”
Transcaucasia’s ‘Trump Route’
Trump, center, holding the trilateral declaration with Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev, left, and Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan on Aug. 8, 2025, in the White House. (White House /Daniel Torok)
The impact of the Iran conflict initially seemed negative for Ukraine. It threatened to divert Trump’s already wavering attention. However, there has been not only no let-up in U.S. support for Ukraine and in certain ways, the U.S. involvement has only intensified by escalating the covert operations in Russian territory. Admittedly, these tactical advantages may not add up ultimately, as Moscow is also stepping up attacks all across the frontline in Ukraine with a view to end the war soon.
The Ukrainian attack on the Iranian ship could well be a calibrated move by Washington. Ukraine acted simultaneously with the U.S. bombing of Gilan province, suggesting a degree of coordination.
The Iranian ambassador to Russia disclosed that the ship was hardly five kilometers from the mouth of River Volga when the attack took place.
If the Moscow-led regional concord on the Caspian’s collective security is weakened, extra-regional military and security rivalries could vitiate the region impacting Russia and Iran’s core interests. Tehran views the Caspian Sea incident not as an isolated tactical event but as evidence of a broader shift in its surrounding security environment.
Last August, U.S.-Azerbaijan-Armenia tripartite agreement was signed in the White House that will create a major transit corridor in Transcaucasia to be named the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity. Plainly put, the U.S. and NATO are seriously contesting Russia’s pre-eminence in the Caspian / Central Asian regions.
Evidently, the Caspian Sea is no longer the conflict-free zone it was once believed to be. A new arena of geopolitical competition, fundamentally reshaping the security landscape of Eurasia and potentially marking the emergence of a new geographic theatre of conflict, has surfaced last weekend.
M.K. Bhadrakumar is a former diplomat. He was India’s ambassador to Uzbekistan and Turkey. Views are personal.
This article originally appeared on Indian Punchline.
